P1Pred. Grid P1
RussellMercedes
38.4%Win Prob
P1P2 medianP3
Podium76%
Points96%
DNF4%
σ1.7
PRE-QUALIGrid is predicted by a separate qualifying model — race-finish probabilities propagate that uncertainty.Race JUN 28, 2026
Predicted Podium
Full Field
#DriverWinPodiumPointsDNF
1
Mercedes · σ 1.7
38.4%
76%
96%
4%2
Mercedes · σ 1.8
29.4%
68%
94%
5%3
McLaren · σ 2.1
9.2%
54%
94%
5%4
Red Bull · σ 2.3
6.7%
33%
94%
5%5
Ferrari · σ 2.2
5.5%
28%
94%
5%6
Ferrari · σ 2.3
3.9%
18%
93%
5%7
McLaren · σ 2.6
3.6%
15%
91%
4%8
Red Bull · σ 2.5
1.4%
6%
85%
6%9
RB F1 Team · σ 2.5
0.7%
2%
71%
6%10
Alpine F1 Team · σ 2.8
0.7%
1%
60%
3%11
Audi · σ 2.8
0.0%
0%
41%
6%12
Audi · σ 2.6
0.0%
0%
25%
7%13
RB F1 Team · σ 2.8
0.6%
1%
25%
4%14
Alpine F1 Team · σ 2.8
0.0%
0%
16%
2%15
Haas F1 Team · σ 2.8
0.0%
0%
10%
6%16
Williams · σ 2.7
0.0%
0%
4%
8%17
Haas F1 Team · σ 2.6
0.0%
0%
3%
3%18
Williams · σ 2.5
0.0%
0%
1%
7%19
Aston Martin · σ 2.7
0.0%
0%
1%
12%20
Cadillac F1 Team · σ 2.0
0.0%
0%
0%
12%21
Aston Martin · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
0%
11%22
Cadillac F1 Team · σ 1.7
0.0%
0%
0%
9%Swing Factors
WET RACEHeavy rain throughout
RUS38.4% → 20.9%-17.5%
ANT29.4% → 16.5%-12.9%
NOR9.2% → 6.9%-2.3%
HEAVY SCMultiple safety cars
RUS38.4% → 29.1%-9.3%
ANT29.4% → 23.3%-6.1%
NOR9.2% → 9.0%-0.1%
CLEAN RACEDry, no SC, low chaos
RUS38.4% → 43.0%+4.6%
ANT29.4% → 30.9%+1.5%
NOR9.2% → 9.2%+0.0%
Team Scenarios
1-2 Finish
mercedes26.7%
mclaren1.1%
Both on Podium
mercedes48.9%
mclaren4.9%
ferrari3.1%
red bull1.0%
Both in Points
mercedes90.8%
ferrari87.4%
mclaren85.3%
red bull79.9%
rb14.9%
Backtest · 2025
Podium Hits78%2.3 of 3 podium spots
Winner Hit63%Top-prob driver = actual winner
Pole Hit17%Pole margins are often <0.05s
Top-3 Quali Hit64%1.9 of 3 front-row slots
Mean Brier (Win)0.61Lower is better · uniform ≈ 0.95